The takeaway
Organic starts more won revenue than it gets credit for.
As the first touch it started $60K of won revenue (24%); as the last touch it gets $35.9K.
Direct is the opposite: $31K on last touch, $5,585 on first.
Northwind DentalClose rate by first touchSeptember 2026
- UTM Grabber1,120 leads
- HubSpot519 deals
- Google Ads$18.9K spend
- Meta Ads$9,100 spend
- Sample datafictional business
Leads whose first visit came from Google Ads close 64% of decided deals.
519 deals, 229 won so far (57% of decided deals), worth $271K. 116 deals are still open.
northwinddental.comGravity Forms30 days
519
Deals+14%
229
Won
57%
Close rate
$271K
Won revenue
$1,185
Average deal−14%
5
Days to close
First touch to outcome
Where your deals started, and how they ended.
Every deal matched to a form lead, by the channel of that person's first visit.
First touch to outcome
Show the numbers
| From | To | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Organic | Won | 71 |
| Organic | Open | 37 |
| Organic | Lost | 65 |
| Google Ads | Won | 72 |
| Google Ads | Open | 44 |
| Google Ads | Lost | 41 |
| Meta Ads | Won | 45 |
| Meta Ads | Open | 19 |
| Meta Ads | Lost | 43 |
| Referral | Won | 16 |
| Referral | Open | 6 |
| Referral | Lost | 15 |
| Direct | Won | 12 |
| Direct | Open | 4 |
| Direct | Lost | 3 |
| Social | Won | 3 |
| Social | Open | 2 |
| Social | Lost | 1 |
First touch to outcome
Close rate by first touch
| First touch | Deals | Won | Close rate | Won revenue | Average deal | Days to close | Ad cost per customer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Organic | 71 | 52% | $60K | $845 | 5 | – | |
| Google Ads | 72 | 64% | $95.4K | $1,325 | 5 | $262 | |
| Meta Ads | 45 | 51% | $72.4K | $1,610 | 6 | $202 | |
| Referral | 16 | 52% | $17.3K | $1,080 | 4.5 | – | |
| Direct | 12 | 80% | $5,585 | $465 | 6 | – | |
| Social | 3 | 75% | $700 | $233 | 4 | – | |
| No form lead | 10 | 62% | $20K | $1,996 | 5 | – | |
| Total | 519 | 229 | 57% | $271K | $1,185 | 5 | $239 |
Close rate counts won and lost deals; open deals are left out. Ad cost per customer divides each platform's spend by the customers whose first visit came from it.
First vs last touch
Who starts the journeys that close.
The same won revenue, credited two ways.
First touchstarted the journey
vs
Last touchbrought the form fill
- Google Ads$95.4K$100K
- Meta Ads$72.4K$64.4K
- Organic$60K$35.9K
- Direct$5,585$31K
- Referral$17.3K$19.3K
- Social$700$700
Won revenue from deals with a form lead, by channel. Each deal counts once on each side, so both columns add up to $251K.
Next steps
What to do next.
This month
Judge Organic on first touch
It started $60K of won revenue but gets $35.9K on last touch. Cutting it on last-touch numbers would cut the journeys it starts.
This month
Feed Google Ads
Its leads close at 64% vs 57% overall, at $1,325 per deal.
This week
Follow up the 116 open deals
116 deals worth $176K are still open. 30 of them were created more than 14 days before Oct 5. Give each one a dated next step in HubSpot.
How we built this report
- Deals: 519 from your HubSpot, created Sep 1 to Oct 5, 2026. 499 (96%) matched a form lead by email; 20 match no form lead.
- First touch is the channel of the person's first recorded visit (UTM Grabber's first-touch fields), with ad platforms split out when that visit shows one; last touch is the visit that ended in the form.
- Close rate = won / (won + lost). Days to close = close date minus create date, won deals only.
- Ad spend: $27.9K from Google Ads and Meta Ads, September 2026.
- Changes compare September 2026 with August.
- Won deals, revenue and days to close are not compared with August: 22% of this period's deals are still open.