Budget simulatorSeptember 2026
  • UTM Grabber1,120 leads
  • Google Ads$18.8K spend
  • Meta Ads$9,100 spend
  • Sample datafictional business

Moving 20% from Meta Ads to Google Ads would cost 17 to 38 leads.

Meta Ads brought 287 leads and Google Ads brought 415 leads in September. Spend: $9,100 on Meta Ads, $18.8K on Google Ads.

northwinddental.comShift 20% from Meta Ads to Google Ads30-day baseline

1,120
Leads today
1,082
Projected, low end−3%
1,103
Projected, high end
$39.81
Cost per lead

The assumption

Real cost per lead, with saturation built in.

Meta Ads loses leads at its average cost per lead, $31.71.

Google Ads gains leads with a square-root response: doubling its spend brings about 41% more leads, not 100%. The high end assumes it keeps today's $45.42 per lead.

The scenario

Where the leads move.

Only Meta Ads and Google Ads change. Every other channel stays as it is.

0200400600800702−57+30674Meta Ads +Google Ads todayLess from MetaAdsAdded in GoogleAdsWith the shift
0200400600800702−57+30674Meta Ads +Google AdstodayLess fromMeta AdsAdded inGoogle AdsWith theshift
Show the numbers
StepValue
Meta Ads + Google Ads today702
Less from Meta Ads−57
Added in Google Ads30
With the shift674
Leads from Meta Ads and Google Ads only, middle of the range. Other channels are unchanged.

The scenario

Today vs With the shift

TodaySeptember 2026
vs
With the shift20% moved to Google Ads
  • Meta Ads leads287230
  • Google Ads leads415435 to 455
  • All leads1,1201,082 to 1,103
  • Meta Ads spend$9,100$7,280
  • Google Ads spend$18.8K$20.7K

Ranges run from the saturating case (low) to today's yield holding (high).

Next steps

How to test it.

  1. This week

    Keep the budget in Meta Ads

    Even at best the shift loses 17 leads. Meta Ads brings leads at $31.71 vs $45.42 in Google Ads.

    High impactLow effort

  2. This month

    Test the reverse: 20% into Meta Ads

    The same model says moving 20% of the Google Ads budget ($3,770) into Meta Ads changes leads by −29 to +36, because Meta Ads brings leads at $31.71 vs $45.42.

    Medium impactLow effort

  3. Weekly

    Track Google Ads leads every week

    Today it brings 96.8 leads a week. To break even it must reach 110.2 a week.

    Medium impactLow effort
How we built this report
  • Baseline: 1,120 leads from September 2026.
  • "facebook" was read as the ad platform Meta Ads: 287 leads. "google" was read as the ad platform Google Ads: 415 leads.
  • Spend from September 2026: $9,100 on Meta Ads, $18.8K on Google Ads. Meta Ads loses leads in proportion to the dollars moved.
  • Low end: Google Ads gains leads as the square root of its spend. High end: it keeps today's cost per lead.
  • Projections are a range, not a promise. Test, then rerun this with the new data.