Northwind DentalAnomaly checkSeptember 2026

UTM Grabber1,120 leads, 999 baseline
Sample datafictional business

The Whitening offer campaign ran 54% below its usual pace in the last 30 days.

1,120 leads against about 967 expected from the 31-day baseline (+16%). 7 of 37 checks flagged.

northwinddental.comBaseline: August 202630 days

Leads

1,120

↑Up 16% from the usual pace

About 967 expected

Flagged

1 down, 6 up or new

Largest drop

−54%

Whitening offer (campaign)

Largest rise

+118%

Social (channel)

The scorecard

What moved, and how far.

Flagged items first. Fix: a drop of half or more. Watch: a drop of a quarter or more. Both must be bigger than normal random swing.

Checks against the baseline

Whitening offer (campaign)
32 leads in the last 30 days against about 70 expected.
−54%
Fix
Invisaline consult promo (campaign)
4 leads in the last 30 days; under 1 expected from the baseline.
New
New
Bio link (campaign)
20 leads in the last 30 days; under 1 expected from the baseline.
New
New
Prospecting look alike new patients (campaign)
3 leads in the last 30 days; under 1 expected from the baseline.
New
New
TikTok (source)
20 leads in the last 30 days; under 1 expected from the baseline.
New
New
Social (channel)
38 leads in the last 30 days against about 17 expected.
+118%
Spike
Invisalign consult promo (campaign)
80 leads in the last 30 days against about 39 expected.
+107%
Spike

By source

Every source against its usual pace.

Change against the usual pace, by source

Show the numbers

Label	Change
Google	13%
Facebook	10%
Instagram	10%
Newsletter	11%
ChatGPT	48%
Bing	11%
Alderbayparents.org	34%
Perplexity.ai	48%

Top 8 sources by volume. Expected = baseline leads scaled to 30 days.

By source

New source

leads from TikTok, which the baseline never saw

Biggest drop

−54%

Whitening offer: 32 leads against about 70

Biggest spike

+118%

Social: 38 leads against about 17

Daily

The window against the baseline.

Leads per day. The dashed line is the baseline's daily average.

Leads per day

Baseline
This window
Baseline average

Show the numbers

Label	Baseline	This window	Baseline average
Aug 1	20		32.2
Aug 2	13		32.2
Aug 3	32		32.2
Aug 4	47		32.2
Aug 5	47		32.2
Aug 6	40		32.2
Aug 7	32		32.2
Aug 8	14		32.2
Aug 9	18		32.2
Aug 10	36		32.2
Aug 11	50		32.2
Aug 12	41		32.2
Aug 13	40		32.2
Aug 14	31		32.2
Aug 15	25		32.2
Aug 16	21		32.2
Aug 17	42		32.2
Aug 18	27		32.2
Aug 19	44		32.2
Aug 20	40		32.2
Aug 21	34		32.2
Aug 22	17		32.2
Aug 23	14		32.2
Aug 24	44		32.2
Aug 25	39		32.2
Aug 26	36		32.2
Aug 27	48		32.2
Aug 28	38		32.2
Aug 29	16		32.2
Aug 30	23		32.2
Aug 31	30	30	32.2
Sep 1		42	32.2
Sep 2		40	32.2
Sep 3		37	32.2
Sep 4		42	32.2
Sep 5		21	32.2
Sep 6		20	32.2
Sep 7		20	32.2
Sep 8		46	32.2
Sep 9		56	32.2
Sep 10		54	32.2
Sep 11		39	32.2
Sep 12		24	32.2
Sep 13		21	32.2
Sep 14		52	32.2
Sep 15		46	32.2
Sep 16		44	32.2
Sep 17		45	32.2
Sep 18		35	32.2
Sep 19		28	32.2
Sep 20		17	32.2
Sep 21		41	32.2
Sep 22		40	32.2
Sep 23		55	32.2
Sep 24		46	32.2
Sep 25		39	32.2
Sep 26		16	32.2
Sep 27		19	32.2
Sep 28		44	32.2
Sep 29		43	32.2

Baseline average 32.2 a day; this window 37.3 a day.

What to check

Where to look first.

Investigations, not fixes: confirm the cause before you act.

Today
Check the Whitening offer campaign
32 leads in the last 30 days against about 70 expected. Look at account status, budgets, rejected ads and the landing page before you change anything.
High impactLow effort−54% vs usual
This week
Confirm the Social spike is real
38 leads against about 17 expected. Look for spam or duplicate submissions before you shift budget toward it.
Medium impactLow effort
This week
Find what sent the TikTok leads
20 leads arrived from a source the baseline never saw. If it's a mention or a partner, follow up while it's fresh.
Low impactLow effort
Ongoing
Run this check every week
A weekly run catches a broken form or a paused campaign within days, not at month end.
Medium impactLow effort

How we built this check

This window: September 2026 (30 days). Baseline: August 2026 (31 days, 999 leads), scaled to 30 days to get each expected count.
A drop is flagged when it is 25% or more, involves at least 5 leads, and is bigger than normal random swing for that volume (1.5 standard deviations to watch, 2 to fix).
New: under 1 lead expected and 3 or more arrived. Went quiet: 3 or more expected and none arrived.

The Whitening offer campaign ran 54% below its usual pace in the last 30 days.

What moved, and how far.

Checks against the baseline

Every source against its usual pace.

Change against the usual pace, by source

The window against the baseline.

Leads per day

Where to look first.

Check the Whitening offer campaign

Confirm the Social spike is real

Find what sent the TikTok leads

Run this check every week